Consensus Lost ✗

Smart money consensus was Sofia Carez — but Camila Eluney Kilapi won instead.

W15 Neuquén: Sofia Carez vs Camila Eluney Kilapi

Resolved Camila Eluney Kilapi. 50% of the top Polymarket traders held Sofia Carez. The smart money was wrong.

RESOLVED

💀

Lost

Consensus Traders

Sofia Carez 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$99.53

Combined PnL

-$17.38

Sofia Carez

2 of 4 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Sofia Carez0%

Camila Eluney Kilapi100%

Camila Eluney Kilapi2 traders

Total Value$10

Total Shares10

Combined PnL+$0.1

Sofia Carez2 traders

Total Value$0

Total Shares15

Combined PnL-$17.48

Camila Eluney Kilapi — 50%Sofia Carez — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
poshposhARB<$100	Sofia Carezavg 69.1¢	$89.27	$89.53	-$52.54	61% 8719-5662 (14381)
└ Camila Eluney Kilapi leg	Camila Eluney Kilapiavg 45.1¢	$40.38	$89.53	+$50
└ Sofia Carez leg	Sofia Carezavg 69.1¢	$48.89	—	-$102.55
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Camila Eluney Kilapiavg 99¢	$10	$10	+$0.1	95% 22084-1133 (23217)
0X 0x1111111111CTR<$100	Sofia Carezavg 61¢	$6.1	—	-$13.68	62% 1677-1046 (2723)
US User7429CTR<$100	Sofia Carezavg 75.9¢	$3.8	—	-$3.8	55% 7805-6337 (14142)
0X 0xdbdd45150249e229eB4cA8aa48A30Dca21Faa5de-1757094771846<$100	Camila Eluney Kilapiavg 15.2¢	—	—	+$0	59% 29148-19878 (49026)