Maccabi Haifa FC vs. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC: O/U 5.5

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Under (60%) · Under at 89¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 26

Over11¢Under89¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 60%

Total Value

$3.5K

Combined PnL

-$139.33

Smart Money Entry

95.3¢ → 89.2¢

-6% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Over11%

Under89%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under3 traders

Total Value$3.3K

Total Shares3,585

Combined PnL-$185.07

Over2 traders

Total Value$252.71

Total Shares2,297

Combined PnL+$45.74

Under — 60%Over — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
RN1	Underavg 95.2¢	$2.5K	$2.3K	-$162.09	54% 52350-44240 (96590)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 95.7¢	$885.63	$868.3	-$17.33	51% 22075-21479 (43554)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 8.7¢	$164.96	$208.71	+$43.74	50% 11010-11181 (22191)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Underavg 95¢	$89.49	$83.84	-$5.65	60% 40137-26767 (66904)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Overavg 10.5¢	$42	$44	+$2	58% 37814-27550 (65364)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,492.03

Value

$2.3K

PnL

-$162.09

Record

54%

52350-44240 (96590)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$885.63

Value

$868.3

PnL

-$17.33

Record

51%

22075-21479 (43554)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$164.96

Value

$208.71

PnL

+$43.74

Record

50%

11010-11181 (22191)

UpTheBlues<$100

Under

Invested

$89.49

Value

$83.84

PnL

-$5.65

Record

60%

40137-26767 (66904)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$42

Value

$44

PnL

+$2

Record

58%

37814-27550 (65364)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 89%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

Under

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.6%

89.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$10.32

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.