Will Maccabi Haifa FC win on 2026-10-26?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 60¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.7K
-$8.08
59.3¢ → 59.5¢
+0% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
MY myxi | Noavg 60.9¢ | $677.02 | $655.49 | -$21.53 | 67% 291-143 (434) |
 acm24 | Noavg 58¢ | $504.14 | $504.14 | -$4.35 | 68% 914-433 (1347) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR | Yesavg 40¢ | $265.92 | $272.24 | +$6.32 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 57.3¢ | $192.9 | $198.77 | +$5.87 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 57.3¢ | $438.43 | $37.07 | +$5.63 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
 tradecraftCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $2 | $1.98 | -$0.02 | 52% 5762-5377 (11139) |
Invested
$677.02
Value
$655.49
PnL
-$21.53
Record
67%
291-143 (434)
acm24Invested
$504.14
Value
$504.14
PnL
-$4.35
Record
68%
914-433 (1347)
Invested
$265.92
Value
$272.24
PnL
+$6.32
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
Invested
$192.9
Value
$198.77
PnL
+$5.87
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
VeryLucky888Invested
$438.43
Value
$37.07
PnL
+$5.63
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
tradecraftCTR<$100Invested
$2
Value
$1.98
PnL
-$0.02
Record
52%
5762-5377 (11139)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.