Will Maccabi Haifa FC vs. Hapoel Be`er Sheva FC end in a draw?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 99¢ · $514 held · ended Oct 26

Yes1¢No99¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 50%

Total Value

$514.34

Combined PnL

$24.19

Smart Money Entry

89.3¢ → 99¢

+11% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$513.17

Total Shares520

Combined PnL+$48.79

Yes2 traders

Total Value$1.18

Total Shares117

Combined PnL-$24.6

No — 50%Yes — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.4¢	$254.42	$263.31	+$8.89	50% 9398-9322 (18720)
RN1	Noavg 82.9¢	$209.96	$249.85	+$39.9	54% 52380-44285 (96665)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 25.6¢	$212.98	$1.13	-$23.61	58% 37843-27569 (65412)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 25¢	$1.04	$0.04	-$0.99	55% 2171-1792 (3963)

SnakeBall

Invested

$254.42

Value

$263.31

PnL

+$8.89

Record

50%

9398-9322 (18720)

RN1

Invested

$209.96

Value

$249.85

PnL

+$39.9

Record

54%

52380-44285 (96665)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$212.98

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$23.61

Record

58%

37843-27569 (65412)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.04

Value

$0.04

PnL

-$0.99

Record

55%

2171-1792 (3963)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 99%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 4 top traders (50%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.