Mohun Bagan Super Giant vs. Chennaiyin FC: O/U 3.5
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 78¢ · $518 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
3
Under 100%
$517.94
$23.61
77.5¢ → 78¢
+1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 78%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Underavg 78.6¢ | $373.33 | $382.32 | +$9 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
 VeryLucky888 | Underavg 68¢ | $82.13 | $102.66 | +$20.53 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Underavg 92¢ | $38.87 | $32.96 | -$5.92 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.