Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (87%). 5 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Mohun Bagan Super Giant vs. Chennaiyin FC: O/U 2.5
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Over (100%) · Over at 13¢ · $178 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Over
5
Over 100%
$178.31
-$83.87
38.1¢ → 13¢
-66% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidOver at 13%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Under 87%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 82%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA darkumbreon88CTR | Overavg 58¢ | $288.44 | $89.42 | -$77.88 | 65% 1616-869 (2485) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Overavg 20.5¢ | $67.72 | $56.25 | -$11.47 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 29¢ | $11.48 | $21.77 | +$10.29 | 61% 8640-5569 (14209) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 55¢ | $21.91 | $6.79 | -$5.26 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Overavg 49¢ | $3.64 | $4.09 | +$0.45 | 60% 39852-26467 (66319) |
Invested
$288.44
Value
$89.42
PnL
-$77.88
Record
65%
1616-869 (2485)
Invested
$67.72
Value
$56.25
PnL
-$11.47
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$11.48
Value
$21.77
PnL
+$10.29
Record
61%
8640-5569 (14209)
Invested
$21.91
Value
$6.79
PnL
-$5.26
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
Invested
$3.64
Value
$4.09
PnL
+$0.45
Record
60%
39852-26467 (66319)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
13.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.