Will Mohun Bagan Super Giant win on 2026-10-26?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 61¢ · $605 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$605.01
$68.6
29.5¢ → 61¢
+106% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
LE LeLynxMalynx | Noavg 27.8¢ | $174.18 | $267.88 | +$58.65 | 57% 24505-18852 (43357) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 31.2¢ | $136.96 | $184 | +$56 | 58% 37543-27331 (64874) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Yesavg 71.2¢ | $194.8 | $147.74 | -$47.06 | 51% 21853-21263 (43116) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $1.36 | $2.05 | +$0.68 | 50% 9389-9311 (18700) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $1.95 | $1.98 | +$0.03 | 54% 5749-4837 (10586) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42¢ | $1.05 | $1.35 | +$0.3 | 55% 2155-1770 (3925) |
Invested
$174.18
Value
$267.88
PnL
+$58.65
Record
57%
24505-18852 (43357)
VeryLucky888Invested
$136.96
Value
$184
PnL
+$56
Record
58%
37543-27331 (64874)
Invested
$194.8
Value
$147.74
PnL
-$47.06
Record
51%
21853-21263 (43116)
Invested
$1.36
Value
$2.05
PnL
+$0.68
Record
50%
9389-9311 (18700)
Invested
$1.95
Value
$1.98
PnL
+$0.03
Record
54%
5749-4837 (10586)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.35
PnL
+$0.3
Record
55%
2155-1770 (3925)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.