Will Chennaiyin FC win on 2026-10-26?

5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Oct 26

Yes18¢No82¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

$26.28

Smart Money Entry

83¢ → 82¢

-1% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes18%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares1,777

Combined PnL+$46.33

Yes2 traders

Total Value$199.32

Total Shares1,107

Combined PnL-$20.05

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 80.3¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$88.87	51% 21853-21263 (43116)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 91.7¢	$281.5	$251.8	-$29.71	58% 37543-27331 (64874)
UP UpTheBluesCTR	Yesavg 19.8¢	$214.63	$195.06	-$19.57	60% 39852-26467 (66319)
LE LeLynxMalynx	Noavg 92¢	$117	$94.19	-$13.46	57% 24505-18852 (43357)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 81¢	$38.69	$39.16	+$0.47	55% 2155-1770 (3925)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Yesavg 20¢	$4.74	$4.26	-$0.47	50% 10896-11050 (21946)
BE Betziko<$100	Noavg 79¢	$3.95	$4.1	+$0.15	54% 5749-4837 (10586)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,150.57

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$88.87

Record

51%

21853-21263 (43116)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$281.5

Value

$251.8

PnL

-$29.71

Record

58%

37543-27331 (64874)

UpTheBluesCTR

Yes

Invested

$214.63

Value

$195.06

PnL

-$19.57

Record

60%

39852-26467 (66319)

LeLynxMalynx

Invested

$117

Value

$94.19

PnL

-$13.46

Record

57%

24505-18852 (43357)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$38.69

Value

$39.16

PnL

+$0.47

Record

55%

2155-1770 (3925)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.74

Value

$4.26

PnL

-$0.47

Record

50%

10896-11050 (21946)

Betziko<$100

Invested

$3.95

Value

$4.1

PnL

+$0.15

Record

54%

5749-4837 (10586)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 7 top traders (71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 89%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 89% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 4

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.7%

82.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$19.47

Max Loss

-$100.00

119.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.