Will Mumbai City FC win on 2026-10-25?

3 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 78¢ · $1K held · ended Oct 25

Yes22¢No78¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$9.65

Smart Money Entry

72.9¢ → 78¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes22%

No78%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.0K

Total Shares1,395

Combined PnL-$12.3

Yes4 traders

Total Value$398.46

Total Shares1,414

Combined PnL+$2.65

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 73¢	$1.0K	$990.66	-$13.64	68% 31167-14971 (46138)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 27.8¢	$272.86	$280.06	+$7.2	52% 16287-14836 (31123)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 34¢	$58.24	$58.24	+$0	54% 13815-11594 (25409)
RO Rocky31CTR<$100	Yesavg 27.7¢	$52.1	$52.64	-$3.22	72% 1257-477 (1734)
HRTrading<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$10.17	$11.48	+$1.31	58% 1472-1088 (2560)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 25.3¢	$8.85	$7.52	-$1.33	55% 4845-4030 (8875)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Noavg 78¢	$3.14	$3.16	+$0.02	50% 8808-8746 (17554)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$1,004.3

Value

$990.66

PnL

-$13.64

Record

68%

31167-14971 (46138)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$272.86

Value

$280.06

PnL

+$7.2

Record

52%

16287-14836 (31123)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$58.24

Value

$58.24

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13815-11594 (25409)

Rocky31CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$52.1

Value

$52.64

PnL

-$3.22

Record

72%

1257-477 (1734)

HRTrading<$100

Invested

$10.17

Value

$11.48

PnL

+$1.31

Record

58%

1472-1088 (2560)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$8.85

Value

$7.52

PnL

-$1.33

Record

55%

4845-4030 (8875)

SnakeBall<$100

Invested

$3.14

Value

$3.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

50%

8808-8746 (17554)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 78%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 7 top traders (43%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance79.8%

78.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$25.27

Max Loss

-$100.00

125.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.