Will Kerala Blasters FC win on 2026-10-25?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 68¢ · $544 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$544.18
-$41.3
61.4¢ → 68¢
+11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 64.2¢ | $324.2 | $306.9 | -$35.49 | 58% 31667-22925 (54592) |
AR ARocky33 | Noavg 54¢ | $105.3 | $120.9 | -$12.68 | 76% 3207-1028 (4235) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $53.94 | $53.94 | +$2.61 | 54% 13815-11594 (25409) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 63.5¢ | $33 | $35.62 | +$2.62 | 68% 31167-14971 (46138) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 61.5¢ | $15.64 | $16.42 | +$0.78 | 55% 4845-4030 (8875) |
RO Rocko33<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $8 | $8.85 | +$0.86 | 64% 869-491 (1360) |
 HRTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $1.04 | $1.03 | -$0.01 | 58% 1472-1088 (2560) |
VeryLucky888Invested
$324.2
Value
$306.9
PnL
-$35.49
Record
58%
31667-22925 (54592)
Invested
$105.3
Value
$120.9
PnL
-$12.68
Record
76%
3207-1028 (4235)
Invested
$53.94
Value
$53.94
PnL
+$2.61
Record
54%
13815-11594 (25409)
Invested
$33
Value
$35.62
PnL
+$2.62
Record
68%
31167-14971 (46138)
Invested
$15.64
Value
$16.42
PnL
+$0.78
Record
55%
4845-4030 (8875)
Invested
$8
Value
$8.85
PnL
+$0.86
Record
64%
869-491 (1360)
HRTradingCTR<$100Invested
$1.04
Value
$1.03
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
1472-1088 (2560)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.