Will Punjab FC win on 2026-10-25?

4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (57%) · No at 64¢ · $984 held · ended Oct 25

Yes36¢No64¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 57%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$984.24

Combined PnL

-$6.61

Smart Money Entry

50.1¢ → 64¢

+28% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes36%

No64%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$249.01

Total Shares378

Combined PnL+$66.55

No4 traders

Total Value$438.74

Total Shares1,013

Combined PnL-$73.17

Yes — 43%No — 57%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBluesARB<$100	Noavg 53.7¢	$372.59	$296.48	-$76.11	68% 31050-14947 (45997)
└ No leg	Noavg 53.7¢	$294.12	$189.06	-$105.06
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 47.8¢	$78.47	$107.42	+$28.95
BE BetzikoCTR	Yesavg 47.3¢	$160.76	$229.36	+$68.6	55% 4838-4027 (8865)
OM omnibus-076daa	Noavg 52.7¢	$236.89	$193.32	-$43.57	59% 13855-9624 (23479)
VD VD721lsj4938Dk388	Noavg 52.4¢	$174.95	$144.83	-$30.97	55% 1297-1043 (2340)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 54¢	$54	$54	+$0	54% 13805-11589 (25394)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Noavg 33¢	$45.23	$46.6	+$1.37	52% 16262-14802 (31064)
LS LSB1CTR<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$16.31	$12.1	-$4.21	77% 1597-467 (2064)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 46.4¢	$5.39	$7.55	+$2.16	58% 1451-1066 (2517)

UpTheBluesARB<$100

Invested

$372.59

Value

$296.48

PnL

-$76.11

Record

68%

31050-14947 (45997)

Both legs:

No$294.1253.7¢-$105.06

Yes$78.4747.8¢+$28.95

BetzikoCTR

Yes

Invested

$160.76

Value

$229.36

PnL

+$68.6

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

omnibus-076daa

Invested

$236.89

Value

$193.32

PnL

-$43.57

Record

59%

13855-9624 (23479)

VD721lsj4938Dk388

Invested

$174.95

Value

$144.83

PnL

-$30.97

Record

55%

1297-1043 (2340)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$54

Value

$54

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

13805-11589 (25394)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Invested

$45.23

Value

$46.6

PnL

+$1.37

Record

52%

16262-14802 (31064)

LSB1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.31

Value

$12.1

PnL

-$4.21

Record

77%

1597-467 (2064)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.39

Value

$7.55

PnL

+$2.16

Record

58%

1451-1066 (2517)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 64%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 7 top traders (57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance66.1%

64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$51.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

151.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.