Will Churchill Brothers SC win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 68¢ · $48 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 67%
$47.9
$6.68
Research grade
NeutralNo at 68%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.9¢ | $26.81 | $41.09 | +$14.28 | 52% 16269-14809 (31078) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 74.5¢ | $152.76 | $3.41 | -$7.1 | 58% 31642-22900 (54542) |
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $3.9 | $3.4 | -$0.5 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.