Ilhan Omar denaturalization case filed by March 31, 2027?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 70¢ · $2K held · ends Apr 1, 2027

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Thu, Apr 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 60%

Total Value

$1.8K

Combined PnL

-$68.81

Smart Money Entry

74.4¢ → 69.5¢

-7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,263

Combined PnL-$118.7

Yes2 traders

Total Value$228.68

Total Shares755

Combined PnL+$49.89

No — 60%Yes — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
tetrase	Noavg 74.4¢	$1.6K	$1.5K	-$100.03	60% 783-531 (1314)
AJ AJSVCTR	Yesavg 22.4¢	$109.47	$118.08	+$18.54	36% 13446-23443 (36889)
ME melonmanmCTR	Yesavg 16.7¢	$79.25	$110.6	+$31.35	65% 459-251 (710)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 70¢	$40.4	$40	-$0.03	50% 269-269 (538)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly	Noavg 76.5¢	$585.92	$23.03	-$18.65	57% 14829-11196 (26025)

tetrase

Invested

$1,621.21

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$100.03

Record

60%

783-531 (1314)

AJSVCTR

Yes

Invested

$109.47

Value

$118.08

PnL

+$18.54

Record

36%

13446-23443 (36889)

melonmanmCTR

Yes

Invested

$79.25

Value

$110.6

PnL

+$31.35

Record

65%

459-251 (710)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$40.4

Value

$40

PnL

-$0.03

Record

50%

269-269 (538)

ArmageddonRewardsBilly

Invested

$585.92

Value

$23.03

PnL

-$18.65

Record

57%

14829-11196 (26025)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 70%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance71.5%

69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$39.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

139.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.