Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will PSMS Medan win on 2026-10-25?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 50¢ · $47 held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 50%
$46.99
$0.36
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
BE Betziko<$100 | Noavg 50.1¢ | $40.05 | $40 | -$0.05 | 55% 4838-4027 (8865) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 47¢ | $6.58 | $6.99 | +$0.41 | 58% 1460-1073 (2533) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.