Will Persik Kediri win on 2026-10-26?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 91¢ · $379 held · ends Oct 26

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$379.24

Combined PnL

$0.9

Smart Money Entry

89.7¢ → 90.5¢

+1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$282.87

Total Shares310

Combined PnL-$1.25

Yes3 traders

Total Value$96.37

Total Shares1,026

Combined PnL+$2.15

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 90¢	$245.4	$244.37	-$1.03	50% 10665-10792 (21457)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Yesavg 9.3¢	$85.13	$86.85	+$1.71	51% 21492-20930 (42422)
UP UpTheBlues<$100	Noavg 88¢	$38.72	$38.5	-$0.22	60% 39473-26004 (65477)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100	Yesavg 8¢	$8	$8.5	+$0.5	58% 37023-26943 (63966)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 9¢	$1.08	$1.02	-$0.06	55% 2064-1680 (3744)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$245.4

Value

$244.37

PnL

-$1.03

Record

50%

10665-10792 (21457)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$85.13

Value

$86.85

PnL

+$1.71

Record

51%

21492-20930 (42422)

UpTheBlues<$100

Invested

$38.72

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$0.22

Record

60%

39473-26004 (65477)

VeryLucky888CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$8.5

PnL

+$0.5

Record

58%

37023-26943 (63966)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.08

Value

$1.02

PnL

-$0.06

Record

55%

2064-1680 (3744)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.