Will Persib Bandung win on 2026-10-25?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 69¢ · $418 held · ended Oct 25

Yes32¢No68¢Ended Sun, Oct 25, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 40%

Total Value

$418.43

Combined PnL

-$335.03

Smart Money Entry

41.7¢ → 68.5¢

+64% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes32%

No69%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No2 traders

Total Value$329.12

Total Shares1,519

Combined PnL-$304.55

Yes3 traders

Total Value$89.32

Total Shares102

Combined PnL-$30.48

No — 40%Yes — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
UP UpTheBlues	Noavg 41.5¢	$600.07	$303.56	-$296.52	68% 31119-14954 (46073)
VeryLucky888CTR	Yesavg 54.5¢	$498.8	$52.54	-$34.41	58% 31642-22900 (54542)
HRTradingCTR<$100	Yesavg 52.6¢	$21.91	$29.28	+$3.03	58% 1460-1073 (2533)
BA Bayupati<$100	Noavg 46¢	$33.59	$25.56	-$8.03	50% 160-158 (318)
BE BetzikoCTR<$100	Yesavg 66¢	$6.6	$7.5	+$0.9	55% 4838-4027 (8865)

UpTheBlues

Invested

$600.07

Value

$303.56

PnL

-$296.52

Record

68%

31119-14954 (46073)

VeryLucky888CTR

Yes

Invested

$498.8

Value

$52.54

PnL

-$34.41

Record

58%

31642-22900 (54542)

HRTradingCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$21.91

Value

$29.28

PnL

+$3.03

Record

58%

1460-1073 (2533)

Bayupati<$100

Invested

$33.59

Value

$25.56

PnL

-$8.03

Record

50%

160-158 (318)

BetzikoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.6

Value

$7.5

PnL

+$0.9

Record

55%

4838-4027 (8865)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 69%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance70.6%

68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$41.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

141.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.