Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Over, while the market favors Under (57%). 4 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Bhayangkara Presisi Lampung FC vs. PSM Makassar: O/U 2.5
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 43¢ · $8K held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Over
6
Over 67%
1 arb excluded
$7.8K
-$747.84
57¢ → 42.5¢
-25% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Under 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Overavg 58.8¢ | $3.3K | $2.6K | -$686.48 | 54% 51359-43322 (94681) |
 us391 | Underavg 40.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$11.17 | 51% 1580-1525 (3105) |
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100 | Overavg 55.6¢ | $1.5K | $1.4K | -$96.56 | 51% 21714-21117 (42831) |
| └ Over leg | Overavg 55.6¢ | $1.1K | $803.43 | -$248.06 | |
| └ Under leg | Underavg 43.5¢ | $471.83 | $623.32 | +$151.5 | |
UP UpTheBlues | Underavg 45¢ | $1.0K | $922.75 | -$90.02 | 60% 39744-26316 (66060) |
LU LuckyLooCTR | Overavg 48¢ | $553.85 | $571.15 | +$17.31 | 50% 10787-10935 (21722) |
 HRTradingCTR | Overavg 58.9¢ | $105.65 | $104.99 | +$0.17 | 55% 2150-1763 (3913) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Overavg 42¢ | $0.73 | $0.74 | +$0.01 | 62% 8582-5253 (13835) |
RN1CTRInvested
$3,320.52
Value
$2.6K
PnL
-$686.48
Record
54%
51359-43322 (94681)
us391Invested
$2,116.62
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$11.17
Record
51%
1580-1525 (3105)
Invested
$1,523.32
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$96.56
Record
51%
21714-21117 (42831)
Both legs:
Invested
$1,012.77
Value
$922.75
PnL
-$90.02
Record
60%
39744-26316 (66060)
Invested
$553.85
Value
$571.15
PnL
+$17.31
Record
50%
10787-10935 (21722)
HRTradingCTRInvested
$105.65
Value
$104.99
PnL
+$0.17
Record
55%
2150-1763 (3913)
poshposhCTR<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
$0.74
PnL
+$0.01
Record
62%
8582-5253 (13835)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
42.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.