Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (71%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ferencvarosi Budapest win on 2026-10-25?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 29¢ · $124 held · ended Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
No
3
No 67%
$124.49
-$15.25
29.4¢ → 29¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 29%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 71%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 29.5¢ | $131.32 | $115.87 | -$15.45 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Yesavg 70¢ | $7.07 | $7.17 | +$0.1 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Noavg 27¢ | $1.35 | $1.45 | +$0.1 | 55% 4880-4051 (8931) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
29.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.