Will NK Osijek win on 2026-10-25?
5 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (63%) · No at 56¢ · $4K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 63%
$3.9K
$1.5K
33.2¢ → 56¢
+69% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 8 top traders (63%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
UP UpTheBlues | Noavg 33.1¢ | $2.0K | $3.4K | +$1.5K | 67% 31285-15084 (46369) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 33¢ | $177.89 | $180.49 | +$2.6 | 58% 31904-23124 (55028) |
CA Cannae | Noavg 32.9¢ | $155.95 | $158.72 | +$2.77 | 53% 13609-12050 (25659) |
AR ARocky33CTR<$100 | Yesavg 67¢ | $46.23 | $45.89 | -$0.34 | 76% 3219-1030 (4249) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $19.78 | $19.34 | -$0.44 | 59% 13975-9717 (23692) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 56¢ | $12.73 | $12.84 | +$0.11 | 50% 7794-7854 (15648) |
BE BetzikoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 51.7¢ | $7.75 | $9.98 | +$2.23 | 55% 4880-4051 (8931) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Noavg 52.7¢ | $3.98 | $3.17 | -$0.81 | 57% 1578-1171 (2749) |
Invested
$1,986.82
Value
$3.4K
PnL
+$1.5K
Record
67%
31285-15084 (46369)
VeryLucky888Invested
$177.89
Value
$180.49
PnL
+$2.6
Record
58%
31904-23124 (55028)
Invested
$155.95
Value
$158.72
PnL
+$2.77
Record
53%
13609-12050 (25659)
Invested
$46.23
Value
$45.89
PnL
-$0.34
Record
76%
3219-1030 (4249)
Invested
$19.78
Value
$19.34
PnL
-$0.44
Record
59%
13975-9717 (23692)
Invested
$12.73
Value
$12.84
PnL
+$0.11
Record
50%
7794-7854 (15648)
Invested
$7.75
Value
$9.98
PnL
+$2.23
Record
55%
4880-4051 (8931)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.98
Value
$3.17
PnL
-$0.81
Record
57%
1578-1171 (2749)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.