Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (62%). 2 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
NK Istra 1961 vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 2.5
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Under (100%) · Under at 38¢ · $193 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Under
2
Under 100%
$192.74
-$4.13
38.8¢ → 38¢
-2% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 38%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Over 62%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CA CannaeCTR | Underavg 39¢ | $160.32 | $156.19 | -$4.13 | 53% 14998-13126 (28124) |
 poshposhCTR<$100 | Underavg 38¢ | $36.55 | $36.55 | +$0 | 44% 2201-2835 (5036) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.