Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Under, while the market favors Over (79%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
NK Istra 1961 vs. HNK Hajduk Split: O/U 1.5
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Under (83%) · Under at 22¢ · $392 held · ended Oct 26
⚠️
Avoid
Under
6
Under 83%
$392.05
-$3.09
19.2¢ → 21.5¢
+12% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidUnder at 22%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
- Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors Over 79%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 RN1CTR | Underavg 20¢ | $294.2 | $301.56 | +$7.36 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Underavg 16.8¢ | $67.01 | $57.96 | -$9.06 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100 | Underavg 17.5¢ | $28.22 | $26.57 | -$1.65 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 HRTrading<$100 | Overavg 81¢ | $3.26 | $3.2 | -$0.06 | 55% 2163-1776 (3939) |
 VeryLucky888CTR<$100 | Underavg 18¢ | $2.2 | $2.5 | +$0.3 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100 | Underavg 20¢ | $0.25 | $0.28 | +$0.03 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
RN1CTRInvested
$294.2
Value
$301.56
PnL
+$7.36
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$67.01
Value
$57.96
PnL
-$9.06
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
Invested
$28.22
Value
$26.57
PnL
-$1.65
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
HRTrading<$100Invested
$3.26
Value
$3.2
PnL
-$0.06
Record
55%
2163-1776 (3939)
VeryLucky888CTR<$100Invested
$2.2
Value
$2.5
PnL
+$0.3
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$0.25
Value
$0.28
PnL
+$0.03
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
21.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.