Spread: HNK Hajduk Split (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold NK Istra 1961 (38%) · NK Istra 1961 at 56¢ · $5K held · ended Oct 26

HNK Hajduk Split45¢NK Istra 196155¢Ended Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

NK Istra 1961

Consensus Traders

NK Istra 1961 38%

Total Value

$5.3K

Combined PnL

$11.42

Smart Money Entry

53.4¢ → 55.5¢

+4% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNK Istra 1961 at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

NK Istra 1961

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

HNK Hajduk Split45%

NK Istra 196156%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

NK Istra 19613 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares5,893

Combined PnL-$76.31

HNK Hajduk Split5 traders

Total Value$2.2K

Total Shares4,366

Combined PnL+$87.72

NK Istra 1961 — 38%HNK Hajduk Split — 62%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME metski29	NK Istra 1961avg 51.3¢	$2.6K	$2.6K	-$95.16	45% 286-353 (639)
RN1CTR	HNK Hajduk Splitavg 48.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$50.45	54% 51866-43791 (95657)
LU LuckyLooCTR	HNK Hajduk Splitavg 48¢	$495.48	$521.29	+$25.81	50% 10912-11060 (21972)
DA darkumbreon88	NK Istra 1961avg 68¢	$476.66	$494.46	+$17.81	65% 1616-869 (2485)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	HNK Hajduk Splitavg 47.8¢	$316.11	$322.18	+$6.07	51% 21869-21276 (43145)
UP UpTheBluesCTR<$100	HNK Hajduk Splitavg 36.1¢	$23.82	$30.69	+$6.87	60% 39862-26488 (66350)
VeryLucky888<$100	NK Istra 1961avg 67¢	$20.1	$21.15	+$1.05	58% 37579-27344 (64923)
HRTradingCTR<$100	HNK Hajduk Splitavg 31.8¢	$20.28	$18.81	-$1.47	55% 2163-1776 (3939)

metski29

NK Istra 1961

Invested

$2,650

Value

$2.6K

PnL

-$95.16

Record

45%

286-353 (639)

RN1CTR

HNK Hajduk Split

Invested

$1,269.18

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$50.45

Record

54%

51866-43791 (95657)

LuckyLooCTR

HNK Hajduk Split

Invested

$495.48

Value

$521.29

PnL

+$25.81

Record

50%

10912-11060 (21972)

darkumbreon88

NK Istra 1961

Invested

$476.66

Value

$494.46

PnL

+$17.81

Record

65%

1616-869 (2485)

GoalLineGhostCTR

HNK Hajduk Split

Invested

$316.11

Value

$322.18

PnL

+$6.07

Record

51%

21869-21276 (43145)

UpTheBluesCTR<$100

HNK Hajduk Split

Invested

$23.82

Value

$30.69

PnL

+$6.87

Record

60%

39862-26488 (66350)

VeryLucky888<$100

NK Istra 1961

Invested

$20.1

Value

$21.15

PnL

+$1.05

Record

58%

37579-27344 (64923)

HRTradingCTR<$100

HNK Hajduk Split

Invested

$20.28

Value

$18.81

PnL

-$1.47

Record

55%

2163-1776 (3939)

Research grade

NeutralNK Istra 1961 at 56%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Spread or totalSpreads and totals: −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).

Smart Money Signal

NK Istra 1961

3 of 8 top traders (38%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that NK Istra 1961 wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance57.7%

55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$73.22

Max Loss

-$100.00

173.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.