Will NK Istra 1961 win on 2026-10-26?
6 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (86%) · No at 97¢ · $276 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 86%
$276.26
$2.07
89.5¢ → 96.5¢
+8% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 7 top traders (86%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnakeBall | Noavg 92.5¢ | $122.07 | $124.01 | +$1.94 | 50% 9393-9316 (18709) |
 RN1 | Noavg 91¢ | $101.11 | $102.22 | +$1.11 | 54% 51866-43791 (95657) |
UP UpTheBlues<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $20.54 | $20.41 | -$0.13 | 60% 39862-26488 (66350) |
 poshposh<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $15.45 | $14.44 | -$1.01 | 61% 8644-5579 (14223) |
LU LuckyLoo<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $9.75 | $9.81 | +$0.06 | 50% 10912-11060 (21972) |
CA Cannae<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $4 | $3.93 | -$0.07 | 53% 15234-13442 (28676) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $1.27 | $1.44 | +$0.17 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
Invested
$122.07
Value
$124.01
PnL
+$1.94
Record
50%
9393-9316 (18709)
RN1Invested
$101.11
Value
$102.22
PnL
+$1.11
Record
54%
51866-43791 (95657)
Invested
$20.54
Value
$20.41
PnL
-$0.13
Record
60%
39862-26488 (66350)
poshposh<$100Invested
$15.45
Value
$14.44
PnL
-$1.01
Record
61%
8644-5579 (14223)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.81
PnL
+$0.06
Record
50%
10912-11060 (21972)
Invested
$4
Value
$3.93
PnL
-$0.07
Record
53%
15234-13442 (28676)
Invested
$1.27
Value
$1.44
PnL
+$0.17
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.