Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (57%). 4 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will HNK Hajduk Split win on 2026-10-26?
4 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 43¢ · $222 held · ended Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
4
No 100%
$221.57
$4.74
42.3¢ → 43¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 4 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 57%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhostCTR | Noavg 42.1¢ | $113.96 | $116.47 | +$2.5 | 51% 21869-21276 (43145) |
 VeryLucky888CTR | Noavg 42.6¢ | $120.74 | $79.52 | +$1.97 | 58% 37579-27344 (64923) |
OM omnibus-076daaCTR<$100 | Noavg 43¢ | $14.07 | $14.07 | +$0 | 50% 17407-17735 (35142) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 42¢ | $11.24 | $11.51 | +$0.27 | 56% 24547-18914 (43461) |
Invested
$113.96
Value
$116.47
PnL
+$2.5
Record
51%
21869-21276 (43145)
VeryLucky888CTRInvested
$120.74
Value
$79.52
PnL
+$1.97
Record
58%
37579-27344 (64923)
Invested
$14.07
Value
$14.07
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
17407-17735 (35142)
Invested
$11.24
Value
$11.51
PnL
+$0.27
Record
56%
24547-18914 (43461)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.