Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (63%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Houthis capture Taiz city by November 30?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 37¢ · $891 held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
2 arb excluded
$890.67
-$79.3
31.4¢ → 37¢
+18% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 37%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 63%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 86%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 86% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AR Arman2ARB<$100 | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $242.86 | $348.54 | +$66.17 | 57% 311-233 (544) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 24.6¢ | $138.86 | $239.87 | +$61.5 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 55¢ | $104 | $108.67 | +$4.67 | |
 theta-thunbergCTR | Yesavg 31.7¢ | $340.06 | $263.86 | -$76.2 | 56% 419-330 (749) |
 RelaccsedARB<$100 | Noavg 67¢ | $200 | $164.5 | +$0.5 | 56% 1176-938 (2114) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 67¢ | $134 | $129 | -$5 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 33¢ | $33 | $35.5 | +$5.5 | |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $66.36 | $63.77 | -$2.59 | 40% 698-1042 (1740) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $54.3 | $50 | -$0.5 | 40% 271-412 (683) |
Invested
$242.86
Value
$348.54
PnL
+$66.17
Record
57%
311-233 (544)
Both legs:
theta-thunbergCTRInvested
$340.06
Value
$263.86
PnL
-$76.2
Record
56%
419-330 (749)
RelaccsedARB<$100Invested
$200
Value
$164.5
PnL
+$0.5
Record
56%
1176-938 (2114)
Both legs:
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$66.36
Value
$63.77
PnL
-$2.59
Record
40%
698-1042 (1740)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$54.3
Value
$50
PnL
-$0.5
Record
40%
271-412 (683)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
37.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.