Houthis capture Taiz city by December 31?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 56¢ · $431 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$431.2
$15.94
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 crypto-basenji | Noavg 56.2¢ | $140.5 | $136.25 | +$8.25 | 40% 157-238 (395) |
0X 0x91c363acd95bb150d4fd28912737eaf6125b409fCTR<$100 | Yesavg 42.6¢ | $99.98 | $93.81 | -$6.19 | 73% 116-44 (160) |
 RelaccsedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36¢ | $72 | $76 | +$9 | 56% 1167-933 (2100) |
AJ AJSVCTR | Yesavg 42¢ | $143.7 | $71.93 | +$4.52 | 36% 13969-24716 (38685) |
 BigRabbitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $42.69 | $42.69 | +$0 | 40% 697-1040 (1737) |
LI lissartterCTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $10.17 | $10.52 | +$0.35 | 42% 5126-7042 (12168) |
crypto-basenjiInvested
$140.5
Value
$136.25
PnL
+$8.25
Record
40%
157-238 (395)
Invested
$99.98
Value
$93.81
PnL
-$6.19
Record
73%
116-44 (160)
RelaccsedCTR<$100Invested
$72
Value
$76
PnL
+$9
Record
56%
1167-933 (2100)
Invested
$143.7
Value
$71.93
PnL
+$4.52
Record
36%
13969-24716 (38685)
BigRabbitCTR<$100Invested
$42.69
Value
$42.69
PnL
+$0
Record
40%
697-1040 (1737)
Invested
$10.17
Value
$10.52
PnL
+$0.35
Record
42%
5126-7042 (12168)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.