Will "Housewife - Tate McRae" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of November 7?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 67¢ · $748 held · ends Nov 4
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Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 100%
$747.52
$344.71
34.7¢ → 67¢
+93% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 67%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SH shovelingdigging | Yesavg 34.3¢ | $380.02 | $730.4 | +$350.38 | 57% 246-188 (434) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Yesavg 54¢ | $31 | $17.13 | -$5.67 | 53% 269-238 (507) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
67.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Culture 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.