Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 21°C on October 27?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 58¢ · $728 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$728.27
$423.8
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Yesavg 18.3¢ | $180.08 | $628.94 | +$448.87 | 46% 547-632 (1179) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 56.3¢ | $63.83 | $66.66 | +$2.83 | 61% 1506-947 (2453) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 35.1¢ | $21.19 | $35.04 | +$13.59 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 56.3¢ | $42.38 | $31.62 | -$10.76 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 70.8¢ | $79.75 | $32.67 | -$25.07 | 53% 6207-5451 (11658) |
Invested
$180.08
Value
$628.94
PnL
+$448.87
Record
46%
547-632 (1179)
Invested
$63.83
Value
$66.66
PnL
+$2.83
Record
61%
1506-947 (2453)
Both legs:
Invested
$79.75
Value
$32.67
PnL
-$25.07
Record
53%
6207-5451 (11658)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.