Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 19°C on October 27?

4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 76¢ · $117 held · ends Oct 27

Yes24¢No76¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 80%

Total Value

$116.78

Combined PnL

-$3.29

Smart Money Entry

72¢ → 76¢

+6% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes24%

No76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No4 traders

Total Value$111.83

Total Shares152

Combined PnL-$6.24

Yes1 trader

Total Value$4.95

Total Shares15

Combined PnL+$2.95

No — 80%Yes — 20%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100	Noavg 71.2¢	$63.39	$59.63	-$3.76	46% 540-625 (1165)
Istaroth<$100	Noavg 72¢	$32.1	$30.22	-$0.12	38% 273-442 (715)
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 73.1¢	$20.33	$18.63	-$1.7	61% 1479-934 (2413)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 13.3¢	$2	$4.95	+$2.95	53% 6112-5366 (11478)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 80¢	$4	$3.35	-$0.65	57% 12531-9470 (22001)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98<$100

Invested

$63.39

Value

$59.63

PnL

-$3.76

Record

46%

540-625 (1165)

Istaroth<$100

Invested

$32.1

Value

$30.22

PnL

-$0.12

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

241532532432<$100

Invested

$20.33

Value

$18.63

PnL

-$1.7

Record

61%

1479-934 (2413)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

Value

$4.95

PnL

+$2.95

Record

53%

6112-5366 (11478)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.65

Record

57%

12531-9470 (22001)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 76%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.9%

76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$28.39

Max Loss

-$100.00

128.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.