Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (73%). 2 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on October 26?

2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 28¢ · $476 held · ends Oct 26

Yes28¢No72¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

Total Value

$475.55

Combined PnL

$29.28

Smart Money Entry

25.3¢ → 27.5¢

+9% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes28%

No73%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$254.63

Total Shares878

Combined PnL+$27.83

No3 traders

Total Value$220.92

Total Shares303

Combined PnL+$1.45

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 25.3¢	$220.98	$253.18	+$27.83	47% 502-558 (1060)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 70¢	$145.37	$151.58	+$2	56% 141-113 (254)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 71.8¢	$57.17	$56.62	-$0.55	56% 3466-2703 (6169)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 73¢	$12.73	$12.73	-$0	49% 66-68 (134)
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 29¢	$1.45	$1.45	+$0	55% 505-413 (918)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$220.98

Value

$253.18

PnL

+$27.83

Record

47%

502-558 (1060)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$145.37

Value

$151.58

PnL

+$2

Record

56%

141-113 (254)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$57.17

Value

$56.62

PnL

-$0.55

Record

56%

3466-2703 (6169)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$12.73

Value

$12.73

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.45

Value

$1.45

PnL

+$0

Record

55%

505-413 (918)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 28%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 5 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 73%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance29.5%

27.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$238.77

Max Loss

-$100.00

338.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.