Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 24°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $201 held · ends Oct 26

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$201.39

Combined PnL

$31.94

Smart Money Entry

19.3¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$187.82

Total Shares836

Combined PnL+$26.55

No2 traders

Total Value$13.11

Total Shares18

Combined PnL+$5.39

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100	Yesavg 20.7¢	$97.07	$97.85	+$0.78	48% 505-558 (1063)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 20.3¢	$42.71	$51.87	+$9.17	55% 151-124 (275)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 11.8¢	$22.36	$38.1	+$16.6	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 67.7¢	$10.92	$11.93	+$1.01	47% 67-77 (144)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 74.6¢	$38.28	$1.18	+$4.38	56% 10604-8367 (18971)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$97.07

Value

$97.85

PnL

+$0.78

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$42.71

Value

$51.87

PnL

+$9.17

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$22.36

Value

$38.1

PnL

+$16.6

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$10.92

Value

$11.93

PnL

+$1.01

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$38.28

Value

$1.18

PnL

+$4.38

Record

56%

10604-8367 (18971)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.

Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.