Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 23°C on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 96¢ · $102 held · ends Oct 26

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

Total Value

$101.91

Combined PnL

$18.89

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No96%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes1 trader

Total Value$38.05

Total Shares381

Combined PnL+$18.61

No3 traders

Total Value$63.86

Total Shares67

Combined PnL+$0.28

Yes — 25%No — 75%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 5.1¢	$19.44	$38.05	+$18.61	55% 151-124 (275)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 95.3¢	$27.45	$28.05	+$0.6	47% 67-77 (144)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 94.2¢	$39.46	$27.25	-$0.13	56% 10500-8289 (18789)
balthazar<$100	Noavg 92¢	$8.75	$8.56	-$0.19	64% 15093-8636 (23729)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$19.44

Value

$38.05

PnL

+$18.61

Record

55%

151-124 (275)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$27.45

Value

$28.05

PnL

+$0.6

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$39.46

Value

$27.25

PnL

-$0.13

Record

56%

10500-8289 (18789)

balthazar<$100

Invested

$8.75

Value

$8.56

PnL

-$0.19

Record

64%

15093-8636 (23729)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 96%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.79

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.