Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 16°C on October 28?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 64¢ · $272 held
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$271.53
$8.02
62.1¢ → 63.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 61.4¢ | $117.02 | $122.07 | +$5.04 | 46% 537-623 (1160) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $78.83 | $78.73 | +$0.7 | 40% 271-412 (683) |
ME merod<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $54.9 | $57.6 | +$2.7 | 52% 2371-2146 (4517) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 63.4¢ | $9.75 | $9.84 | +$0.09 | 57% 12489-9413 (21902) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 74¢ | $3.8 | $3.29 | -$0.51 | 36% 14275-25592 (39867) |
Invested
$117.02
Value
$122.07
PnL
+$5.04
Record
46%
537-623 (1160)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$78.83
Value
$78.73
PnL
+$0.7
Record
40%
271-412 (683)
Invested
$54.9
Value
$57.6
PnL
+$2.7
Record
52%
2371-2146 (4517)
Invested
$9.75
Value
$9.84
PnL
+$0.09
Record
57%
12489-9413 (21902)
Invested
$3.8
Value
$3.29
PnL
-$0.51
Record
36%
14275-25592 (39867)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.