Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on October 26?

3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 97¢ · $716 held · ends Oct 26

Yes97¢No3¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 60%

Total Value

$715.9

Combined PnL

$65.42

Smart Money Entry

38.5¢ → 96.8¢

+151% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes97%

No3%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$676.99

Total Shares717

Combined PnL+$87.67

No2 traders

Total Value$38.91

Total Shares393

Combined PnL-$22.25

Yes — 60%No — 40%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 35.2¢	$396.65	$613.8	+$86.58	47% 501-557 (1058)
Istaroth<$100	Yesavg 54.8¢	$34.61	$37.4	+$3.23	51% 269-254 (523)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR	Noavg 56.3¢	$33.28	$32.7	-$0.58	56% 140-112 (252)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Yesavg 92¢	$27.91	$25.78	-$2.13	—
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Noavg 16¢	$27.88	$6.21	-$21.68	56% 3445-2681 (6126)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$396.65

Value

$613.8

PnL

+$86.58

Record

47%

501-557 (1058)

Istaroth<$100

Yes

Invested

$34.61

Value

$37.4

PnL

+$3.23

Record

51%

269-254 (523)

HellYeahTraderCTR

Invested

$33.28

Value

$32.7

PnL

-$0.58

Record

56%

140-112 (252)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.91

Value

$25.78

PnL

-$2.13

Record

—

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Invested

$27.88

Value

$6.21

PnL

-$21.68

Record

56%

3445-2681 (6126)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 97%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 96%

Freshness

Mature

30h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 1

Aligned

sharpYes 50% · 2

Aligned

ctrNo 100% · 2

Diverging

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 50% · 4

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.9%

96.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.19

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.