Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (70%). 2 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 13°C on October 27?

2 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 31¢ · $631 held · ends Oct 27

Yes31¢No69¢Ends Tue, Oct 27, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$630.78

Combined PnL

$114.72

Smart Money Entry

25.2¢ → 30.5¢

+21% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes31%

No70%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$400.09

Total Shares1,175

Combined PnL+$103.4

No2 traders

Total Value$169.47

Total Shares257

Combined PnL+$11.32

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.7¢	$233.92	$335.49	+$101.57	46% 540-625 (1165)
HE HellYeahTrader	Noavg 61¢	$150.65	$162.35	+$11.11	55% 191-155 (346)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 33.3¢	$62.77	$64.61	+$1.83	62% 1405-861 (2266)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 60¢	$208.2	$61.22	-$21.75	38% 273-442 (715)
└ No leg	Noavg 60¢	$36.76	$40.24	-$15.78
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 40.1¢	$24.55	$20.97	-$5.96
24 241532532432<$100	Noavg 68¢	$6.91	$7.11	+$0.2	61% 1479-934 (2413)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$233.92

Value

$335.49

PnL

+$101.57

Record

46%

540-625 (1165)

HellYeahTrader

Invested

$150.65

Value

$162.35

PnL

+$11.11

Record

55%

191-155 (346)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$62.77

Value

$64.61

PnL

+$1.83

Record

62%

1405-861 (2266)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$208.2

Value

$61.22

PnL

-$21.75

Record

38%

273-442 (715)

Both legs:

No$36.7660¢-$15.78

Yes$24.5540.1¢-$5.96

241532532432<$100

Invested

$6.91

Value

$7.11

PnL

+$0.2

Record

61%

1479-934 (2413)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 31%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 4 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 70%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance32.6%

30.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$206.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

306.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.