Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on October 27?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 76¢ · $1K held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$1.2K
$16.62
83.8¢ → 76¢
-9% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 82.7¢ | $632.88 | $657.77 | +$24.9 | 46% 546-630 (1176) |
HE hello.67 | Noavg 84.9¢ | $370.42 | $375.38 | +$4.96 | 50% 1615-1608 (3223) |
24 241532532432<$100 | Noavg 86¢ | $17.2 | $72.38 | -$9.24 | 61% 1498-945 (2443) |
 Istaroth<$100 | Noavg 86.4¢ | $73.58 | $62.44 | -$5.02 | 36% 273-494 (767) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 16.6¢ | $38.06 | $39.49 | +$1.43 | 55% 202-166 (368) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 79.5¢ | $13.33 | $12.91 | -$0.42 | 57% 12797-9706 (22503) |
Invested
$632.88
Value
$657.77
PnL
+$24.9
Record
46%
546-630 (1176)
Invested
$370.42
Value
$375.38
PnL
+$4.96
Record
50%
1615-1608 (3223)
Invested
$17.2
Value
$72.38
PnL
-$9.24
Record
61%
1498-945 (2443)
Istaroth<$100Invested
$73.58
Value
$62.44
PnL
-$5.02
Record
36%
273-494 (767)
Invested
$38.06
Value
$39.49
PnL
+$1.43
Record
55%
202-166 (368)
Invested
$13.33
Value
$12.91
PnL
-$0.42
Record
57%
12797-9706 (22503)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.