Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 10°C on October 26?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $765 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$764.97
$53.3
83.4¢ → 83.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 84%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 80.9¢ | $402.84 | $450.75 | +$47.91 | 48% 505-558 (1063) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 88¢ | $152.77 | $157.11 | +$4.34 | 55% 152-125 (277) |
 Istaroth | Noavg 86.9¢ | $109.36 | $107.83 | -$0.71 | 49% 269-278 (547) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 85.5¢ | $27.78 | $28.84 | +$1.07 | 56% 10997-8571 (19568) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $19.74 | $20.44 | +$0.7 | 47% 68-78 (146) |
Invested
$402.84
Value
$450.75
PnL
+$47.91
Record
48%
505-558 (1063)
Invested
$152.77
Value
$157.11
PnL
+$4.34
Record
55%
152-125 (277)
IstarothInvested
$109.36
Value
$107.83
PnL
-$0.71
Record
49%
269-278 (547)
Invested
$27.78
Value
$28.84
PnL
+$1.07
Record
56%
10997-8571 (19568)
Invested
$19.74
Value
$20.44
PnL
+$0.7
Record
47%
68-78 (146)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.