Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (57%). 2 of 3 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 9°C on October 27?
2 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (67%) · Yes at 43¢ · $480 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
3
Yes 67%
1 arb excluded
$479.91
$66.58
37.7¢ → 43¢
+14% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 43%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 3 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors No 57%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 37.6¢ | $906.74 | $408.03 | +$66.58 | 46% 537-623 (1160) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 58.9¢ | $67.58 | $64.02 | -$3.39 | 40% 271-412 (683) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 58.9¢ | $38.91 | $35.64 | -$3.26 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.2¢ | $28.49 | $28.38 | -$0.13 | |
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 43¢ | $5.16 | $5.16 | +$0 | 61% 1475-932 (2407) |
RL RLWG<$100 | Noavg 54¢ | $2.7 | $2.7 | +$0 | 50% 7436-7483 (14919) |
Invested
$906.74
Value
$408.03
PnL
+$66.58
Record
46%
537-623 (1160)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$67.58
Value
$64.02
PnL
-$3.39
Record
40%
271-412 (683)
Both legs:
Invested
$5.16
Value
$5.16
PnL
+$0
Record
61%
1475-932 (2407)
Invested
$2.7
Value
$2.7
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
7436-7483 (14919)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
43.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.