Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 17°C on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 91¢ · $704 held · ends Oct 26

Yes10¢No90¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$704.26

Combined PnL

-$13.41

Smart Money Entry

84.8¢ → 90.5¢

+7% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes10%

No91%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No3 traders

Total Value$235.54

Total Shares250

Combined PnL-$11.23

Yes1 trader

Total Value$0.45

Total Shares3

Combined PnL-$2.18

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100	Noavg 72.7¢	$298.84	$468.26	+$169.43	48% 505-558 (1063)
└ No leg	Noavg 72.7¢	$272.29	$316.57	+$44.28
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 23.1¢	$226.21	$151.69	+$125.14
Istaroth	Noavg 81.3¢	$165.46	$159.07	-$5.45	49% 269-276 (545)
HE HellYeahTrader<$100	Noavg 91¢	$77.69	$72.14	-$5.55	55% 152-125 (277)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 89.1¢	$4.57	$4.33	-$0.23	47% 67-77 (144)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 31¢	$3.45	$0.45	-$2.18	56% 10997-8571 (19568)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100

Invested

$298.84

Value

$468.26

PnL

+$169.43

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Both legs:

No$272.2972.7¢+$44.28

Yes$226.2123.1¢+$125.14

Istaroth

Invested

$165.46

Value

$159.07

PnL

-$5.45

Record

49%

269-276 (545)

HellYeahTrader<$100

Invested

$77.69

Value

$72.14

PnL

-$5.55

Record

55%

152-125 (277)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$4.57

Value

$4.33

PnL

-$0.23

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.45

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$2.18

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 91%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance91.9%

90.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

108.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.