Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 16°C on October 26?
2 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 60¢ · $220 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
No
2
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$219.65
$0.94
Research grade
NeutralNo at 60%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 2 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 68¢ | $190.82 | $183.83 | -$6.48 | 52% 269-246 (515) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 68¢ | $123.76 | $109.21 | -$14.55 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 36.6¢ | $66.6 | $74.62 | +$8.07 | |
0X 0x1aBc2b469b5dED495d6C8B21Fc79dcb8d8f345E7-1778811281023<$100 | Noavg 58¢ | $27.42 | $28.37 | +$0.94 | 38% 67-108 (175) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $7.45 | $7.45 | +$0 | 56% 3416-2671 (6087) |
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$190.82
Value
$183.83
PnL
-$6.48
Record
52%
269-246 (515)
Both legs:
Invested
$27.42
Value
$28.37
PnL
+$0.94
Record
38%
67-108 (175)
Invested
$7.45
Value
$7.45
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
3416-2671 (6087)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
60.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.