Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (67%). 3 of 4 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 15°C on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 33¢ · $184 held · ends Oct 26

Yes33¢No67¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$184.2

Combined PnL

$37.3

Smart Money Entry

22.1¢ → 33¢

+49% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes33%

No67%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$183.2

Total Shares631

Combined PnL+$37.34

No1 trader

Total Value$1.01

Total Shares2

Combined PnL-$0.05

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR	Yesavg 23.2¢	$101.73	$126.97	+$25.24	47% 502-558 (1060)
fildoroCTR<$100	Yesavg 19.4¢	$31.81	$54.58	+$22.76	65% 430-233 (663)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 28¢	$94.91	$1.65	-$10.66	56% 3466-2703 (6169)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100	Noavg 70¢	$1.05	$1.01	-$0.05	49% 66-68 (134)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR

Yes

Invested

$101.73

Value

$126.97

PnL

+$25.24

Record

47%

502-558 (1060)

fildoroCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.81

Value

$54.58

PnL

+$22.76

Record

65%

430-233 (663)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.91

Value

$1.65

PnL

-$10.66

Record

56%

3466-2703 (6169)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100

Invested

$1.05

Value

$1.01

PnL

-$0.05

Record

49%

66-68 (134)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 33%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors No 67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance35.1%

33.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$184.72

Max Loss

-$100.00

284.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.