Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 19°C on October 25?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 51¢ · $3K held · ended Oct 25
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
1 arb excluded
$3.4K
$871.78
52.7¢ → 50.5¢
-4% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 51%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
HE hello.67 | Noavg 52¢ | $1.7K | $2.5K | +$853.41 | 50% 1569-1544 (3113) |
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98ARB<$100 | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $652.58 | $700.13 | +$47.55 | 47% 491-543 (1034) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 51.3¢ | $311.07 | $476.19 | +$165.09 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.8¢ | $341.44 | $223.95 | -$117.55 | |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 63.5¢ | $123.82 | $105.34 | +$18.07 | 56% 3387-2644 (6031) |
AJ AJSV<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $12.8 | $12.56 | -$0.24 | 36% 12963-22716 (35679) |
0X 0x8B8b9c565C8dCA43cfb767F0F2C20B2B323d2512-1778811726293<$100 | Noavg 82.4¢ | $9.3 | $9.25 | -$0.05 | 49% 378-389 (767) |
1A 0x1abc...45e7<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $3 | $3.6 | +$0.6 | — |
Invested
$1,674.6
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$853.41
Record
50%
1569-1544 (3113)
Invested
$652.58
Value
$700.13
PnL
+$47.55
Record
47%
491-543 (1034)
Both legs:
Invested
$123.82
Value
$105.34
PnL
+$18.07
Record
56%
3387-2644 (6031)
Invested
$12.8
Value
$12.56
PnL
-$0.24
Record
36%
12963-22716 (35679)
Invested
$9.3
Value
$9.25
PnL
-$0.05
Record
49%
378-389 (767)
Invested
$3
Value
$3.6
PnL
+$0.6
Record
—
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.