Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on October 26?

3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 100¢ · $234 held · ends Oct 26

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 75%

Total Value

$234.16

Combined PnL

$221.43

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$233.6

Total Shares238

Combined PnL+$221.63

No1 trader

Total Value$0.54

Total Shares27

Combined PnL-$0.2

Yes — 75%No — 25%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98	Yesavg 25.9¢	$58.46	$181.47	+$163.68	48% 505-558 (1063)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed	Yesavg 52.8¢	$136.42	$45.06	+$69.08	54% 4556-3891 (8447)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 96.2¢	$30.67	$7.08	-$11.13	56% 10997-8571 (19568)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Noavg 2.7¢	$0.74	$0.54	-$0.2	47% 67-77 (144)

0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98

Yes

Invested

$58.46

Value

$181.47

PnL

+$163.68

Record

48%

505-558 (1063)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed

Yes

Invested

$136.42

Value

$45.06

PnL

+$69.08

Record

54%

4556-3891 (8447)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$30.67

Value

$7.08

PnL

-$11.13

Record

56%

10997-8571 (19568)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Invested

$0.74

Value

$0.54

PnL

-$0.2

Record

47%

67-77 (144)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Side priced over 95¢0.90–0.99 was −0.2 % a trade (n 4,210); above 95¢ little is left to win and the backtests' bands stop at 0.95.
Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

99.9¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.