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Yes
balthazar<$100NoYesNo
IstarothCTR<$100Yes
Consensus Lost ✗
Smart money consensus was Yes — but No won instead.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on October 26?
Resolved No. 60% of the top Polymarket traders held Yes. The smart money was wrong.
RESOLVED
💀
Lost
Consensus Traders
5
Yes 100%
Total Value
$0
Combined PnL
-$398.04
Smart Money Signal
Yes
3 of 5 top traders (60%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Market Activity
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Outcome Probabilities
Yes0%
No100%
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Yes3 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares1,096
Combined PnL-$398.04
No2 traders
Total Value$0
Total Shares0
Combined PnL+$0
Yes — 60%No — 40%
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTR | Yesavg 36.3¢ | $398.04 | — | -$398.04 | 46% 523-607 (1130) |
balthazar<$100 | Noavg 98.7¢ | — | — | +$0 | 62% 18200-10969 (29169) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | — | — | +$0 | 53% 5561-4835 (10396) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | — | — | +$0 | 57% 11904-9099 (21003) |
IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 52¢ | — | — | +$0 | 43% 269-355 (624) |
0X
0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98CTRInvested
$398.04
Value
—
PnL
-$398.04
Record
46%
523-607 (1130)
balthazar<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
18200-10969 (29169)
CB
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
5561-4835 (10396)
GH
ghorrock<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
57%
11904-9099 (21003)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
—
Value
—
PnL
+$0
Record
43%
269-355 (624)
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Market Info
Condition ID
0xc0417e05...432b65
Slug
highest-temperature-in-tokyo-on-october-26-2026-20c