Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 3 of 5 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on October 25?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (60%) · Yes at 0.5¢ · $99 held · ends Oct 25
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
5
Yes 60%
$99.3
-$109.61
24.9¢ → 0.5¢
-98% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 1%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the trading costs in the backtests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Longshots (0.05–0.30) lost −29.5 % a trade pooled (n 1,625; −22 % in spring, −35 % in October): the strongest effect in the backtests.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Cooling
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Mature
18h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 64.1¢ | $98.1 | $54.51 | +$9.7 | 65% 6456-3411 (9867) |
0X 0xfBd8C9C22cA76B3662d0e53A4f79719FDC684027-1779347618060<$100 | Noavg 81.2¢ | $22.2 | $21.89 | -$0.31 | 65% 4145-2190 (6335) |
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0CTR | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $168.53 | $17.89 | -$150.64 | 53% 504-456 (960) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Yesavg 34.2¢ | $69.17 | $4.24 | +$17.81 | 56% 105-82 (187) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 20.1¢ | $80.52 | $0.77 | +$13.82 | 56% 3177-2515 (5692) |
Invested
$98.1
Value
$54.51
PnL
+$9.7
Record
65%
6456-3411 (9867)
Invested
$22.2
Value
$21.89
PnL
-$0.31
Record
65%
4145-2190 (6335)
Invested
$168.53
Value
$17.89
PnL
-$150.64
Record
53%
504-456 (960)
Invested
$69.17
Value
$4.24
PnL
+$17.81
Record
56%
105-82 (187)
Invested
$80.52
Value
$0.77
PnL
+$13.82
Record
56%
3177-2515 (5692)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
0.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.