Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (55%). 1 of 2 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on October 27?
1 of 2 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 45¢ · $127 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
2
Yes 50%
1 arb excluded
$127.41
-$0.01
Research grade
NeutralYes at 45%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 30–50¢0.30–0.50 lost −6.5 % a trade pooled (n 2,793), a little worse than the plain consensus.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 2 top traders (50%)Underdog side (market favors No 55%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432CTR<$100 | Yesavg 45¢ | $60.58 | $60.57 | -$0.01 | 64% 1409-791 (2200) |
 IstarothARB<$100 | Noavg 57.5¢ | $61.86 | $60 | -$0.54 | 44% 269-349 (618) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 57.5¢ | $34.51 | $33 | -$1.51 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 43.3¢ | $25.96 | $27 | +$0.97 | |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Noavg 55¢ | $6.83 | $6.83 | +$0 | 46% 88-102 (190) |
Invested
$60.58
Value
$60.57
PnL
-$0.01
Record
64%
1409-791 (2200)
IstarothARB<$100Invested
$61.86
Value
$60
PnL
-$0.54
Record
44%
269-349 (618)
Both legs:
Invested
$6.83
Value
$6.83
PnL
+$0
Record
46%
88-102 (190)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.