Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 26°C on October 27?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 76¢ · $790 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
1 arb excluded
$789.67
-$30.53
72.6¢ → 76¢
+5% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 76%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x65f7226a82e093e5115e47ec2f4f7e733cd28b98 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $469.18 | $445.44 | -$23.74 | 46% 537-623 (1160) |
24 241532532432ARB<$100 | Noavg 79.7¢ | $177.9 | $187.27 | -$1.54 | 61% 1475-932 (2407) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 79.7¢ | $115.15 | $103.3 | -$6.81 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 26.7¢ | $78.69 | $83.97 | +$5.28 | |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 72.2¢ | $111.11 | $110.04 | -$1.07 | 55% 185-154 (339) |
HE hello.67<$100 | Noavg 72.7¢ | $35.47 | $33.69 | -$1.79 | 50% 1613-1600 (3213) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $21.6 | $8.73 | -$0.67 | 57% 12489-9413 (21902) |
 IstarothCTR<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $18.2 | $3.6 | -$2.77 | 40% 271-412 (683) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 28¢ | $1.4 | $0.9 | -$0.5 | 53% 6100-5351 (11451) |
Invested
$469.18
Value
$445.44
PnL
-$23.74
Record
46%
537-623 (1160)
Invested
$177.9
Value
$187.27
PnL
-$1.54
Record
61%
1475-932 (2407)
Both legs:
Invested
$111.11
Value
$110.04
PnL
-$1.07
Record
55%
185-154 (339)
Invested
$35.47
Value
$33.69
PnL
-$1.79
Record
50%
1613-1600 (3213)
Invested
$21.6
Value
$8.73
PnL
-$0.67
Record
57%
12489-9413 (21902)
IstarothCTR<$100Invested
$18.2
Value
$3.6
PnL
-$2.77
Record
40%
271-412 (683)
Invested
$1.4
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$0.5
Record
53%
6100-5351 (11451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
76.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.