Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 25°C on October 27?
3 of 3 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 81¢ · $475 held · ends Oct 27
⚖️
Neutral
No
3
No 100%
$475.03
-$44.16
91.2¢ → 80.7¢
-12% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 3 top traders (100%)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
24 241532532432 | Noavg 90.8¢ | $350.59 | $311.54 | -$39.05 | 61% 1497-943 (2440) |
HE HellYeahTrader | Noavg 93.7¢ | $94.91 | $96.83 | +$1.92 | 55% 200-166 (366) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 89.5¢ | $116.52 | $66.67 | -$7.03 | 57% 12548-9494 (22042) |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.