Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on October 26?

1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 90¢ · $986 held · ends Oct 26

Yes11¢No89¢Ends Mon, Oct 26, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 20%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$986.27

Combined PnL

$99.37

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes11%

No90%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No1 trader

Total Value$627.58

Total Shares784

Combined PnL+$115.08

Yes4 traders

Total Value$62.41

Total Shares459

Combined PnL-$15.71

No — 20%Yes — 80%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0	Noavg 65.3¢	$512.5	$627.58	+$115.08	52% 533-487 (1020)
IstarothARB<$100	Noavg 65.6¢	$310.28	$296.28	-$2.6	50% 269-269 (538)
└ No leg	Noavg 65.6¢	$194.26	$237.02	+$42.95
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 35.3¢	$104.61	$59.26	-$45.55
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.2¢	$44.02	$32.48	-$11.54	55% 513-418 (931)
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100	Yesavg 21.3¢	$16.97	$15.91	-$1.06	49% 66-70 (136)
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100	Yesavg 26.3¢	$18.09	$13.73	-$4.01	54% 146-122 (268)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$13.87	$0.29	+$0.9	54% 4489-3820 (8309)

0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0

Invested

$512.5

Value

$627.58

PnL

+$115.08

Record

52%

533-487 (1020)

IstarothARB<$100

Invested

$310.28

Value

$296.28

PnL

-$2.6

Record

50%

269-269 (538)

Both legs:

No$194.2665.6¢+$42.95

Yes$104.6135.3¢-$45.55

0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4fCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$44.02

Value

$32.48

PnL

-$11.54

Record

55%

513-418 (931)

0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$16.97

Value

$15.91

PnL

-$1.06

Record

49%

66-70 (136)

HellYeahTraderCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.09

Value

$13.73

PnL

-$4.01

Record

54%

146-122 (268)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.87

Value

$0.29

PnL

+$0.9

Record

54%

4489-3820 (8309)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 90%

No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)0.70–0.90 was about break-even after costs, +0.4 % a trade (n 4,327); 0.60–0.95 with 70 %+ and $10k+ +2.9 % (n 955). The consensus beats its price by 2–3 points here, about what the costs take.

Smart Money Signal

1 of 5 top traders (20%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance90.9%

89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$9.97

Max Loss

-$100.00

110.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.