Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on October 26?
3 of 4 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (75%) · Yes at 58¢ · $490 held · ends Oct 26
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
4
Yes 75%
$490.13
$76.72
47.1¢ → 58¢
+23% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 58%
No measured edge either way. The plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −4.8 % a trade after costs (n 10,051, 95 % CI −6.5 to −3.1 %).
- Fewer than 5 holdersEvery backtest needed 5+ holders; with fewer nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢0.50–0.70 lost −3.2 % a trade pooled (n 3,834).
Backtest of Oct 22 2026: one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees. The grade never goes above “Research candidate”: no rule passed the multiple-testing check. It is not a forecast and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 4 top traders (75%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xeb1b3ef2729ab7be83e1337ec81f24467c7f87c0 | Yesavg 46.1¢ | $294.05 | $369.72 | +$85.23 | 52% 526-483 (1009) |
HE HellYeahTraderCTR<$100 | Noavg 48¢ | $89.94 | $86.11 | -$8.51 | 56% 141-113 (254) |
0X 0x005ED998fCb786679Eb8Bfd0d20c15C0903D6D8E-1778811773658<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $26.1 | $26.1 | -$0 | 49% 66-68 (134) |
0X 0x9506e646497107cabf2d5b941a8e6a60d0db1c4f<$100 | Yesavg 58¢ | $8.2 | $8.2 | +$0 | 55% 505-413 (918) |
Invested
$294.05
Value
$369.72
PnL
+$85.23
Record
52%
526-483 (1009)
Invested
$89.94
Value
$86.11
PnL
-$8.51
Record
56%
141-113 (254)
Invested
$26.1
Value
$26.1
PnL
-$0
Record
49%
66-68 (134)
Invested
$8.2
Value
$8.2
PnL
+$0
Record
55%
505-413 (918)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
58.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.